Want a Crystal Ball for the 2025 Game Awards? Try the Orchestra.

The 2025 Game Awards is set to announce its nominees later today, and as with any Big Internet Thing, buzz abounds. Barring any last-minute rule changes, show host and producer Geoff Keighley will share six titles that will vie for the coveted Game of the Year award on December 11.

It’s been a particularly impressive year for games, so narrowing things down to just six finalists feels borderline impossible. While our team at The Punished Backlog have been speculating internally as to which games will get recognized (or snubbed), I have my own particular theory that — while largely unserious — I’m excited to put to the test in three short hours.

Want to know which games will make the shortlist for Game of the Year 2025? Look no further than the Game Awards’ orchestra.

11/17 Update: Five out of six ain’t bad! As anticipated, Split Fiction was the weak link, ceding the floor to Kingdom Come: Deliverance II. Still, I feel good about my picks. And to KCDII, I apologize: I wasn’t familiar with your game.

Blame It on the Boogie

2025’s release schedule has felt like a year-long boxing match. At the beginning of the year, I was positive I’d played the GOTY frontrunner in Hazelight’s Split Fiction, only for another challenger to come for the belt. First, it was the cerebral Blue Prince. Then it was Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 and later Donkey Kong Bananza. The list of haymakers goes on.

Even the “quieter” releases have been impressive. From Kingdom Come: Deliverance II to Monster Train 2, Mario Kart World to perhaps my personal favorite of 2025, Pipistrello and the Cursed Yoyo, it’s been a crowded year for AAAs and indies alike. Add in the games that are releasing too late to make this year’s cut, like Metroid Prime 4 and Kirby Air Riders, and it’s been a good time to game.

Yet, as good as 2025 has been in terms of releases, the good has almost entirely been dwarfed by the bad. Between layoffs, studio closures, and the ongoing threat of AI, it’s hard to appreciate what game developers provide when those same developers are constantly under siege. Yes, Hollow Knight: Silksong finally came out, but when voice actors worry they won’t have a job in six months, it’s tough to stay positive.

It’s hard to appreciate what game developers provide when those same developers are constantly under siege.

As grim as this industry looks, and it sure looks grim, I’ve found solace in at least one place this year. Call it reckless escapism, call it naivety in the face of AI, but it’s one area of gaming that I’m confident will always find a way through the strife: music.

Play That Funky Music

My partner and I share a love of video games. We love Overcooked as much as any couple and swapped tips in the weeks following the release of DK Bananza. However, there’s one thing she does whenever she boots up her Nintendo Switch that irks me to no end: She mutes it.

Her rationale is understandable. She predominately plays big sandbox games like LEGO Star Wars or smaller cozy games like Unpacking. These games are light on story and rarely, if ever, have voice acting. So, she turns down the volume and cranks up her favorite celebrity gossip podcast.

To me, however, it’s blasphemy. I grew up on the music of Nobou Uematsu, Yoko Shimomura, and Austin Wintory. My “Work Playlist” on Spotify has 2,884 songs and counting — an ever-growing soundscape representing some of the greatest games and movies of all time. To miss out on a game’s soundtrack would be to miss out on its very heart and soul. And oh, did 2025 have plenty of soul.

To miss out on a game’s soundtrack would be to miss out on its very heart and soul.

In Clair Obscur, an emotive score elevated what was already a strong RPG into the pantheon of true greats. Of particular note: the game’s title theme, “Alicia,” composed by Lorien Testard and sung by Alice Duport-Percier, which teased what was to come in medieval Occitan. “Gustave,” likewise, has become an anthem befitting the character’s now-famous catchphrase: For those who come after.

Death Stranding 2, meanwhile, featured a host of memorable tunes courtesy of longtime Kojima collaborator Ludvig Forssell. “BB’s Theme” from the original game makes an appearance, while songs like “Should We Have Connected?” and “A Bridge Too Far” lend weight to a provocative narrative.

In Hollow Knight: Silksong, an already impressive game became something truly magnificent in its second act. “Choral Chambers,” the song that greets Hornet as she explores the Citadel at the heart of Pharloom, is a haunting memorial to those who perished during their pilgrimage — and a spark of hope for those who remain. Other standouts include the Shawshank-esque “Greymoor,” with its swelling strings, and the understated “Shellwood,” with its gorgeous oboe throughline.

While music will never be the singular factor behind a game’s success, it’s telling that most of 2025’s best games make you feel not just through their play, but through their melodies. Heck, even Donkey Kong: Bananza had its own big Disney princess ballad, “Heart of Gold,” sung by Pauline during the end credits.

Most of 2025’s best games make you feel not just through their play, but through their melodies.

My Predictions for the 2025 Game Awards

And so we return to my grand thesis: The main throughline at this year’s Keighleys won’t be platforming prowess or pulse-pounding action, but the power of the score. If a contender has a soundtrack that’s worthy of the illustrious Game Awards orchestra, I’ll bet my bottom dollar it makes the shortlist for Game of the Year.

Based on my callouts above, you can probably already guess a few of my picks. Without further ado, here’s my full list, plus the songs I hope to see played live on stage this December:

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 (“Gustave”)
Death Stranding 2: On the Beach (“One Last Fight Pt.2“)
Donkey Kong Bananza (“Heart of Gold”)
Hades II (“Death to Chronos“)
Hollow Knight: Silksong (“Choral Chambers”)
Split Fiction (“Split Fiction Main Theme“)

Does my theory hold water? We’ll find out shortly. Of my six predictions, I’m least confident in Split Fiction — not because it isn’t deserving (it absolutely is) but because it seems to have lost all the momentum that carried it during the first few months of 2025. Don’t be surprised if Ghost of Yōtei, Kingdom Come: Deliverance II, or even surprise-hit Absolum emerges as a dark horse.

One game I don’t expect to make the cut? Blue Prince, the April indie sensation that earned a slew of 10s from critics. While I found Blue Prince terrific, it feels like an outlier due to its sparse soundtrack and deliberate stretches of silence. Music does so much to enhance a game experience, and I worry the lack of earworms impacted its memorability. It remains to be seen whether voters felt the same.

One thing’s for certain, though. Whichever games do get the nomination, you better believe “flute guy” will be there to absolutely crush it on stage in their honor.

The Game Awards announces its list of nominees today, November 17, at 12pm EST. The winner will be crowned live on December 11, starting at 8pm EST. (Or, you know, you could just watch the Indie Game Awards instead.)